Frankfurt (energate) - A recent study by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) concludes that Germany's electricity grids are not fit for the energy transition. According to the study, extensive technical upgrades and conversions will be required at all voltage levels to meet the changing requirements from 2030 onwards. The German Electrical and Electronic Manufacturers' Association (ZVEI), which commissioned the study, is therefore calling for massive investment in the short and medium term. At least 100 billion euros will be needed by 2030," said Wolfgang Weber, chairman of the board of the ZVEI, on the occasion of the publication of the study. The first priority must be to invest in the digitalisation of the grids, he said.
PwC sees the greatest need for modernisation in the high-voltage grid. However, it says it is essential that distribution grid operators take stock of their current situation. The authors have developed six multi-layered scenarios for the further development of the grids. In doing so, they also took into account recent studies by the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology, Dena, the Agora energy transition think tank, and the BDI, as well as the current grid development plans of the electricity grid operators.
Grids not prepared for new tasks
With a view to the ongoing transformation towards decarbonisation of the electricity sector, the study defines 39 functionalities that the electricity grid will need in a decarbonised world with an 80 per cent share of renewable energies in electricity generation (the political target set out in the coalition agreement). These functionalities include, for example, dealing with the massive increase in flexibility in the distribution grid due to the increase in electric mobility and heat pumps as part of the heat transition. The results are sobering: So far, only two of the 39 functionalities required in Germany's electricity grids have been implemented in order to be able to follow the energy transition path as desired.
Massive ramp-up of controllable loads expected
The
study 's key basic assumptions for the next 15 to 20 years are that wind power capacity will quadruple to up to 220,000 MW and that installed PV capacity will increase by a factor of six to up to 350,000 MW, while conventional power plants will gradually be phased out. This will make the supply more dependent on the weather. In addition, the capacity of e-charging stations is expected to grow by a factor of 30 to up to 20 million and the number of heat pumps from the current 45,000 MW to 900,000 MW. The study puts the additional flexibility potential from said additional controllable loads at up to 372,000 MW. In view of this growth, the transmission system operators Tennet and Transnet BW had brought the so-called
Redispatch 3.0 into play from 2026.
PWC: Task of the grid operators will change fundamentally
Against this backdrop, the authors of the study predict that voltage maintenance, one of the most pressing challenges in grid operation, will change fundamentally. At the same time, the role of transmission system operators in particular will change significantly. In addition to the classic distribution task, the management of dynamic situations at the high voltage level will be much more important than today. Particularly in times of extreme imbalances between load and supply, "situations that vary greatly in time and space" will become more frequent, according to PwC. The range of tasks will then extend "from the distribution task, which will continue to exist, to the extreme opposite, i.e. the collection of power from lower voltage levels". /pa
