Düsseldorf (energate) - The energy crisis is putting additional pressure on security of supply in Germany. The analysts at McKinsey see Germany heading towards an electricity shortfall of 4,000 MW in the short term on its energy transition path by 2025. The accelerated expansion of renewables alone will not be enough to keep supply and demand in balance, the consultancy predicts in its latest
energy transition index. Among other things, redispatch costs, which have risen along with electricity prices, are partly responsible for this. By 2030, this gap could grow to up to 30,000 MW, the analysts warn. However, McKinsey also shows a possible way out.
The drivers are the phase-out of nuclear and coal-fired power on the generation side and increasing electrification on the demand side. As a result, "new gas-fired power plants will have to be built and the temporary continued operation of coal-fired power plants will have to be considered," McKinsey concludes.
Gas-fired power plants continue to be regarded as a bridging technology
.
From the point of view of the Federal Network Agency, the realisation that additional base-load flexibility is needed is not groundbreaking. The agency calculates that modern, hydrogen-capable gas-fired power plants will fill the gap. By 2030, 21,000 MW are expected to be online. But McKinsey is now casting doubt on this calculation: "By 2025, at most, the 3,000 MW already planned and under construction will be available".
Doubts about forecasts on H2-capable gas-fired power plants
Given the long planning, approval and construction times, it is "more than questionable whether a further 18,000 MW of new capacity can be made available by 2030". Moreover, there are too many uncertainties surrounding the investment required for additional expansion. For example, it is unclear when and how the switch to hydrogen could take place. The war and crisis make it "politically unlikely" that Germany will fully commit to the coal renaissance by 2030, McKinsey adds.
Tender for targeted load reduction
The analysts suggest two measures in addition to the growing flexibility potential from e-mobility and heat pumps to ensure the stability of the electricity supply during the ongoing transformation. Firstly, trade and industry could participate in load shedding auctions: "Whoever wins the tender would have to reduce their load on instruction." In the residential consumer segment, intelligent consumption control via the so-called smart meters should provide relief. At the same time, households would then profit from cheaper electricity, for example by using electrical appliances at times of low demand.
After the regulation on dealing with disconnectable loads
expired in the summer of 2022, the
debate in the industry about what the successor regulation targeted for winter 2023/24 should look like has visibly gained momentum. /pa
